The Atlantic Ocean's temperature is reaching record levels in the middle of winter, heralding a potential increase in hurricane intensity for the upcoming season. These temperature increases, observed since March 2023, are the result of accelerating global warming and the impact of the El Niño climate phenomenon on the Pacific side.
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Joel Hirschi, an expert in marine systems modeling, explains that this warming trend is not linear but characterized by phases of acceleration alternating with periods of slowing. The current situation, with average temperatures in the North Atlantic exceeding the norms of the last thirty years by about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius), is particularly worrying.
Brian McNoldy, a specialist in marine and atmospheric sciences, highlights the uniqueness of these temperatures, equivalent to an event that theoretically occurs once every 284,000 years. These conditions could favor the formation of more powerful hurricanes during the usual season extending from June to November.
Hurricanes derive their energy from the evaporation of seawater, a process that is amplified by warmer waters. Thus, while the warming of the oceans is not directly responsible for an increase in the number of hurricanes, it does contribute to their intensification. Given this reality, scientists are even considering adding a new category to classify the most extreme storms: Category 6 hurricanes.
However, the formation of hurricanes also depends on other factors, such as vertical wind shear, which can prevent storm development if conditions are not favorable. The current El Niño phenomenon, characterized by a warming of the equatorial Pacific waters, plays a key role in altering global atmospheric conditions. According to predictions, if El Niño gives way to La Niña, this could lead to a particularly active hurricane season, especially if the abnormally high temperatures of the Atlantic persist.
This context underscores the importance of monitoring climate developments and preparing for potentially more destructive hurricane seasons, direct consequences of the ongoing climate change.