The mercury is rising globally at an unprecedented rate. A recently published analysis confirms a clear acceleration in the temperature increase.
The work from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research indicates a marked increase in the pace of warming since 2015. After examining temperature records from several authoritative organizations, scientists observed that the current rate is nearly double that of previous decades. This trend becomes clear once natural and temporary variations are taken into account.
To isolate the long-term trend, the team adjusted the temperature records by removing the effects of natural events such as El Niño or volcanic eruptions. These events can briefly obscure the overall trajectory by causing short-term deviations. This adopted approach helps to mitigate these noise fluctuations and reveal more clearly the signal of human-induced warming.
The findings report a statistically robust acceleration, noticeable around 2014 and corroborated by several independent measurement series. The years 2023 and 2024, once corrected, remain the warmest ever documented since the beginning of modern records.
If the rate recorded over the last decade persists, the 1.5°C ceiling established by the Paris Agreement could be exceeded before 2030, according to researchers whose study is published in
Geophysical Research Letters.
The greenhouse effect and its mechanism
The greenhouse effect is a natural process that allows the Earth to retain some of the sun's heat, making life possible. Without it, our planet would be much colder. However, human activities, such as the use of coal, oil, or gas, increase the concentration of certain greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
These gases, particularly carbon dioxide and methane, capture more of the infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface. This additional heat retention induces a gradual rise in average temperatures on a planetary scale. It is this enhancement of the greenhouse effect that is at the origin of the climate warming documented since the industrial era.
Oceans and forests play an important role by absorbing a portion of this excess carbon dioxide, but their capacities are not unlimited. When these carbon reservoirs become saturated or are degraded, for example by deforestation, the accumulation of gases in the atmosphere accelerates. This phenomenon contributes to the intensification of warming and its impacts on ecosystems.
Understanding this mechanism helps to grasp why reducing emissions is fundamental to stabilizing the climate. A shift towards renewable energies and the protection of natural environments are major levers for mitigating this process.