The European Space Agency has just conducted the most extreme space weather simulation ever designed, a doomsday scenario where no spacecraft would survive intact from a solar storm of unprecedented violence, yet plausible.
This unprecedented large-scale simulation took place at ESA's mission control center in Darmstadt, Germany. Teams confronted their satellite systems with a solar storm of intensity comparable to the 1859 Carrington Event, the most powerful geomagnetic disturbance ever recorded. Thomas Ormston, deputy operations manager for the Sentinel-1D mission, emphasized that in such an event, the primary objective would be to protect satellites while minimizing damage, as no ideal solution would exist in the face of such a space catastrophe.
The Parker Solar Probe mission studies the Sun up close.
Credit: NASA GSFC/CIL/Brian Monroe The simulated scenario presented a devastating triple solar threat with the following script.
A class X solar flare, the most energetic category, strikes Earth in just eight minutes, immediately disrupting communication and positioning systems. This first wave is followed by an intense bombardment of high-energy particles - protons, electrons, and alpha particles - that impacts all satellites in orbit, causing electronic malfunctions and potential hardware damage.
Approximately fifteen hours after the initial flare, a coronal mass ejection of exceptional magnitude strikes Earth's magnetic field. This collision causes significant expansion of our planet's upper atmosphere, increasing atmospheric drag on satellites by up to 400%. This abrupt change in orbital conditions destabilizes spacecraft trajectories, multiplying collision risks and considerably reducing their operational lifespan.
Jorge Amaya, space weather modeling coordinator at ESA, explained that the colossal energy flux emitted by the Sun could damage our entire satellite fleet. Even low Earth orbit satellites, normally protected by Earth's magnetic field, would not be spared by an event of Carrington's magnitude.
Gustavo Baldo Carvalho, lead simulation manager for Sentinel-1D, insisted on the inevitability of such an event. The exercise demonstrated how a major solar storm could trigger cascading failures affecting all space systems, from satellite loss to degradation of essential navigation and communication systems. Facing this prospect, ESA is developing its monitoring network and preparing the Vigil mission planned for 2031.
Coronal mass ejections
Coronal mass ejections represent colossal explosions occurring in the solar corona, that outer layer of the Sun's atmosphere. These phenomena project billions of tons of solar plasma - an ionized gas composed mainly of electrons and protons - into space, traveling at speeds that can reach several million kilometers per hour (several million miles per hour).
When these clouds of charged particles reach Earth, they interact with our magnetic field, creating intense electric currents in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. This interaction can generate spectacular polar auroras but also induce stray currents in terrestrial power grids and pipelines.
The energy released during a major coronal mass ejection equals millions of nuclear bombs exploding simultaneously. The most powerful of these eruptions can temporarily alter the shape of Earth's magnetic field and compress our magnetosphere on the side facing the Sun.
Early detection of these events is essential because the time between observation and impact on Earth typically varies between 15 and 60 hours, providing a critical window to implement protective measures for sensitive infrastructure.
Protecting satellites in orbit
Modern satellites incorporate multiple levels of protection against space radiation, designed to withstand the hostile conditions of the orbital environment. Radiation shielding often uses high-density materials like tungsten or special polymers that absorb energetic particles before they reach sensitive electronic components.
Satellite electronic systems employ radiation hardening techniques, including redundant circuits and memories protected by error-correcting codes. Designers also use components specifically tested to resist the cumulative effects of radiation, which can cause progressive degradation of semiconductors.
In case of a major solar storm alert, operators can put satellites into survival mode, orienting their solar panels to reduce particle exposure and deactivating non-essential systems. Some spacecraft can also temporarily modify their orbital altitude to benefit from better protection by Earth's magnetic field.
Satellite design includes reinforced electrical insulation systems to prevent electrostatic discharges, a common phenomenon during geomagnetic storms where charge accumulation on satellite surfaces can create destructive electrical arcs.
But all this currently doesn't allow complete resistance to a doomsday scenario like the one simulated by ESA.