On May 8, 2026, an underwater volcano erupted north of Papua New Guinea. Quickly, satellites detected steam plumes and discolored water, revealing intense activity. This phenomenon could lead to the formation of a new island.
Infrared images show widespread thermal anomalies, indicating hot magma has risen very close to the surface. Scientists are closely following the event, as a newborn island is rarely observed live.
Fictional image of a volcanic island
The Bismarck Sea region is poorly mapped, with rugged seafloor. The eruption occurs along a ridge, about 10 miles (16 km) from a 1972 eruption. Scientists disagree on the exact volcano in activity, its depth, or its previous eruption date. This lack of data makes study difficult: the seafloor in this area hosts faults, volcanoes, subduction trenches, and spreading zones, making the local geology particularly poorly understood. For now, satellites offer the best window for observation.
The first signs of the eruption came from small earthquakes on May 8. NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites then recorded optical images of steam-rich plumes. The PACE satellite detected discolored water around the site. The VIIRS instrument spotted thermal anomalies covering about 2.7 square miles (7 km²), indicating a heat source very close to the surface. High-resolution images from Sentinel 2 and Landsat 9 showed intense surface activity, with multiple vents of steam and ash. These observations confirm that the eruption is occurring in shallow water.
Floating pumice rafts stretch in long streaks in surface currents. If an island emerges, it could form a volcanic cone with a crater, but it could also erode quickly. A violent explosion is possible if seawater reaches the magma chamber. For now, scientists eagerly await to see if new land will appear, an event rarely observed by satellite.
Floating pumice and greenish, discolored water stretch southwest from the eruption site. Above, a white volcanic plume drifts westward in this image acquired by MODIS, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, aboard NASA's Terra satellite on May 15, 2026.
Credit: NASA Earth Observatory / Michala Garrison
This eruption is associated with a spreading ridge, which limits explosivity, unlike subduction zones. The eruption's duration remains uncertain: the 1972 one in the same region lasted only four days, while another nearby persisted for nearly four years. Volcanologists estimate the risk of a major explosion is limited, but they continue to monitor closely. Spreading ridges typically produce less violent eruptions than stratovolcanoes in subduction zones, and the absence of a major explosive signal so far supports this hypothesis.
Scientists see a unique opportunity to study island formation and its colonization by life. Jim Garvin of NASA plans to use radar data from the NISAR and RADARSAT satellites to map changes. If a lasting island forms, research can track its evolution against erosion and plant colonization.