Asteroids frequently brush past our planet. However, Apophis, dubbed the "God of Chaos," may well write a new chapter in this story. NASA and ESA are closely monitoring this celestial object.
Discovered in 2004, Apophis was rated level 4 on the Torino Scale, indicating a worrisome close encounter. Since then, scientists have estimated that this giant, over 300 meters (approximately 985 feet) in diameter, is not expected to collide with Earth, at least until the end of the century.
However, a new hypothesis has emerged. Canadian astronomer Paul Wiegert has explored a scenario in which Apophis could deviate from its trajectory in 2029. According to his analyses, a collision with a small celestial object could alter the fate of this asteroid.
Even an encounter with an object barely 3.4 meters (about 11 feet) in size could be enough to change its path, potentially directing it toward our planet. Wiegert emphasizes that this scenario is extremely unlikely, with chances less than one in two billion. Yet, even such slim probabilities raise questions.
Space remains vast, and collisions between celestial objects are rare. The ESA's Ramses mission, scheduled for 2029, will allow close observation of Apophis. The goal is to better understand its behavior in the face of Earth's gravitational forces.
If no catastrophe occurs, Apophis will pass at a distance of only 32,000 kilometers (about 20,000 miles) from our planet, well within the orbit of geostationary satellites. This event will be observable by nearly two billion people, provided the skies are clear. Until this celestial rendezvous, experts continue to refine their predictions. An eventual impact is unlikely, but remains closely monitored.
What is the Torino Scale?
The Torino Scale is a tool created to assess the risk of collision of a celestial object, such as an asteroid, with Earth. It comprises levels from 0 to 10. Level 0 means "no risk," while level 10 indicates a certain collision that could lead to a global climate catastrophe.
This scale considers several factors, including the probability of impact and the energy released in the event of a collision. A level 4, like that assigned to Apophis, indicates a close encounter requiring significant attention from astronomers, with the potential risk of regional devastation.
In practice, this scale is used to communicate the threat level of near-Earth objects to the public and decision-makers. Levels can be adjusted as new data becomes available, allowing for better risk assessment and implementation of appropriate measures if necessary.
Article Author: Cédric DEPOND