The water cycle, essential for life on Earth, is showing alarming signs of disruption. According to a recent report, extreme weather events could intensify further in 2025, with dramatic consequences for populations and ecosystems.
The year 2024 was marked by record heat and major disruptions in the global hydrological cycle. These changes, amplified by global warming, have led to devastating floods and prolonged droughts, affecting millions of people.
An intensification of extreme rainfall
Data shows a significant increase in episodes of intense rainfall. In 2024, monthly precipitation records were broken 27% more often than at the beginning of the century. These torrential rains caused major floods in China, Bangladesh, and Europe, resulting in substantial material and human damage.
Flash floods, like those observed in Spain or Brazil, illustrate this trend. These often unpredictable events devastate infrastructure and disrupt agricultural activities, jeopardizing food security in many regions.
More severe and widespread droughts
Conversely, some areas have experienced record droughts. In the Amazon, river levels have reached historic lows, disrupting transportation and hydroelectric power production. Forest fires, fueled by drought, have released enormous amounts of greenhouse gases.
In Southern Africa, maize production has dropped by more than 50%, plunging 30 million people into food insecurity. Herders have had to slaughter their livestock due to lack of pasture, worsening the economic and social crisis.
Warming that amplifies disasters
Global warming accelerates water evaporation, exacerbating both droughts and floods. Storms, fueled by warmer oceans, are becoming more intense and slower, dumping record amounts of water on limited areas.
In 2024, average temperatures exceeded those of the beginning of the century by 1.2°C (2.2°F), affecting nearly four billion people. This temperature rise has also contributed to extreme events, such as floods in Afghanistan and droughts in South America.
Increased risks for 2025
The forecasts for 2025 are concerning. The report anticipates worsening droughts in Southern Africa, South America, and Asia, as well as an increased risk of floods in Europe and the Sahel. These phenomena threaten water resources, agriculture, and the stability of ecosystems.
In the face of these changes, experts call for strengthening early warning systems and developing resilient infrastructure. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains essential to limit the scale of future disasters.
Article author: Cédric DEPOND