A recent study published in the scientific journal The Lancet has drawn attention to an alarming phenomenon: the projected decline in birth rates worldwide. Conducted in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO), the study highlights an inevitable decline in the population of most countries by the end of the century.
According to researchers, more than half of the countries are already showing fertility rates insufficient to sustain their population renewal. This concerning trend is expected to continue into the future, with potentially serious consequences for both the economy and society.
The study is based on a thorough analysis of data collected by the Global Burden of Disease, a program supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, aiming to compile global health information. Researchers examined not only current fertility rates but also factors likely to influence their future evolution, such as education level or infant mortality.
The findings of the study are unequivocal: by 2050, three-quarters of the countries could have fertility rates insufficient to maintain their current population. By the year 2100, the situation could worsen, with 97% of countries affected by this decline in fertility.
This trend goes hand in hand with an imbalance between developed countries, where the population is declining, and less wealthy countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where demographic growth continues. This disparity, the researchers emphasize, could lead to major challenges, both economically and socially.
However, despite the significance of these results, researchers urge caution. They warn about the limits of their forecasts, especially due to the lack of reliable data in many developing countries. Moreover, they insist on the need for a nuanced approach, away from sensationalism, to address this complex phenomenon.
This study sheds light on a major challenge for the coming decades: how to cope with a dramatic decrease in births worldwide? The answers to this question will require concerted international action, to mitigate the potential impacts on economies, food security, public health, and the environment.
Article Author: Cédric DEPOND