Our star follows a regular rhythm of about 11 years, marked by periods of intense activity and calm. Currently, solar cycle 25 reached its maximum in October 2024, according to data from the space agency NASA. Since then, we have been in a declining phase, where the number of sunspots is gradually decreasing. However, this transition does not mean the end of spectacular phenomena, as residual activity can still produce impressive events.
In recent years, X-class solar flares and coronal mass ejections have been frequent, causing auroras down to unusual latitudes. For example, in 2024, more than 50 such eruptions were recorded, compared to 19 in 2025 until December. However, this decrease in frequency is accompanied by powerful episodes, such as the X5.1 eruption in November 2025, which triggered a severe geomagnetic storm.
Observation of past solar cycles provides instructive examples. During cycle 23, which peaked in 2001, the strongest eruptions occurred years after the maximum, with an event estimated at X40 in 2003. Similarly, for cycle 24, the largest eruptions took place in 2017, more than three years after the peak. These historical precedents indicate that isolated episodes can still occur during the declining phase.
Therefore, in 2026, the probability of major solar flares should decrease, but not disappear. If a powerful coronal mass ejection is directed towards Earth, it could generate geomagnetic storms and auroras visible at low latitudes. This will depend on the alignment of solar events with our planet.
Solar flare X9.0 of October 3, 2024, the most intense of cycle 25 directed towards Earth.
Credit: Ryan French/NASA
Solar activity therefore remains unpredictable, even in the declining phase. Scientists continue to monitor the Sun closely, using instruments like those from NASA to refine forecasts. For the public, this means that starry nights could still hold luminous surprises in the coming years, with auroras that surpass expectations.