Could the fate of Antarctica's massive ice sheet dramatically disrupt sea levels? Many scientists are investigating this question and the uncertainties surrounding it.
Glacial and oceanic dynamics, influenced by multiple physical processes, complicate the assessment of Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise. These processes are poorly understood due to their unpredictable nature.
Topographic representation of the Antarctic bedrock with drainage basins and potential contributions to global sea level rise. Vulnerable areas are shown in blue.
Credit: Australian Antarctic Data Centre (2024)
An international team, led by researchers from Australia, the United States, and Canada, is aiming to reduce these uncertainties. They recommend a series of measures to refine projections about Antarctic ice sheet melting and sea level rise.
Their work relies on current data from the
Australian Antarctic Data Centre, which will serve as a basis for more targeted research. According to these researchers, a complete melt of the Antarctic ice sheet would cause a sea-level rise of 190 feet (58 meters), with 170 feet (52 meters) attributed to East Antarctica alone.
Understanding the interactions between precipitation, ice melt under ice shelves, and erosion processes is crucial. These interactions trigger feedback effects that accelerate ice retreat, especially if certain critical thresholds are crossed.
Current climate models are still unable to perfectly simulate these mechanisms due to inadequate data. This leads to significant uncertainty about the future evolution of the ice sheet.
Researchers point out that sea-level rise is not uniform on a global scale. Melting changes Antarctica's gravity, causing a local decline in sea level but a more pronounced rise in more distant regions.
Future efforts will focus on high-resolution measurements in sensitive areas of East Antarctica. This data will help refine predictive models, which are essential for decision-makers to take effective measures to adapt to future changes.
How does the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet affect Earth's gravity and sea levels?
The melting of the Antarctic ice sheet changes the distribution of mass on the planet. As ice is lost, the gravitational pull exerted by the continent decreases, causing a drop in sea level near Antarctica but a greater rise in distant regions.
This phenomenon adds to changes in Earth's rotation and deformation. These processes affect how water is distributed in the oceans, leading to spatial variability in sea levels.
The combined effect of these mechanisms means that the rise in sea levels will not be uniform across the globe. Some areas will be much more affected than others, depending on their geographic location.